EFL Cup · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 20:30

Manchester City vs Brighton Prediction, Tips and Odds – 28 October 2026

Manchester CityHome
20:30Wed 28 Oct
BrightonAway
CompetitionEFL CupVenueEtihad Stadium, Manchester
Our tipOver 2.5
Odds Value1.55
Our chance73%
Why we picked it

City scored three or more in three of their last five, Brighton scored in four of theirs, and four of the last five meetings had three or more goals.

Odds of 1.55 give about a 65% chance. We rate it 73%, so the odds look generous.

Match result chances

Manchester City win 50%Draw 24%Brighton win 26%

All markets for this match

Over/Under 2.5 goals Main tipOver 2.573%1.371.55 Value

Fair odds are what our chance is worth: 100 ÷ chance. When the bookmaker pays more, we mark it as value.

Form, last 5 matches

Manchester CityWWWWLLost 2-1 at Aston Villa last time out
BrightonWWWWLLost 2-0 at Liverpool last time out

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right.

Head to head

Manchester City 1 · Draw 2 · Brighton 2
Premier League Jan 2026Manchester City 1–1 Brighton
Premier League Aug 2025Brighton 2–1 Manchester City
Premier League Mar 2025Manchester City 2–2 Brighton
Premier League Nov 2024Brighton 2–1 Manchester City
Premier League Apr 2024Brighton 0–4 Manchester City

Team news

Manchester City

Semenyo is out, and Kovačić, O'Reilly and Nunes are doubts.

Brighton

Ferguson, Mitoma, Minteh, Tzimas, Yohanna, Azeez and Wieffer are reported out, and Struijk is a doubt.

Form guide

City won four in a row (1-0 at Manchester United, 5-3 against Sunderland, 3-0 at Liverpool and 3-2 against Ipswich) before losing 2-1 at Aston Villa on Saturday.

Brighton won four in a row (5-0 at Coventry, 3-0 against Arsenal, 2-0 at Sunderland and 5-0 against Crystal Palace) before losing 2-0 at Liverpool on Sunday.

Head-to-head

City have not beaten Brighton in four meetings: 1-1, 2-1 to Brighton, 2-2 and 2-1 to Brighton. Before that City won 4-0 at Brighton. Four of the last five meetings had three or more goals.

Team news

Brighton have a long list of absent forwards, including Ferguson, Mitoma and Minteh. City are without Semenyo, and Kovačić is a doubt.

Our prediction and why

We take Over 2.5 goals. City scored three or more in three of their last five, and Brighton scored in four of theirs, which fits our rule. Four of the last five meetings also went over 2.5. Brighton's missing forwards and cup rotation are the main risks.

Manchester City vs Brighton: FAQs

When is Manchester City vs Brighton?

Manchester City vs Brighton (EFL Cup) is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 20:30 (GMT+0100), at Etihad Stadium, Manchester.

What is the best pick for Manchester City vs Brighton?

Our main tip is over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.55, which we rate at a 73% chance. City scored three or more in three of their last five, Brighton scored in four of theirs, and four of the last five meetings had three or more goals.

Who will win Manchester City vs Brighton?

We give Manchester City a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Brighton 26%. Manchester City are clear favourites.

How did the last meeting go?

It ended 1-1 at the Etihad in January 2026.

Has City won any of the last four meetings?

No. Two were draws and Brighton won the other two.

What is your best pick for Wednesday 28 October?

Our Banker of the Day is Bayern Munich vs Magdeburg: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.08.

Odds are a guide and may change before kick-off. Predictions are opinions, not guarantees. 18+ only.

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