Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 20:00

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Tips and Odds – 21 October 2026

Real MadridHome
20:00Wed 21 Oct
RB LeipzigAway
CompetitionChampions LeagueVenueSantiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Our tipReal Madrid or draw (1X)
Odds1.06
Our chance91%
Why we picked it

Real have won all four home games since the start of September, and Leipzig have lost all four away games in the Bundesliga and Champions League.

Odds of 1.06 give about a 94% chance. We rate it a little lower at 91%, so treat this one with care.

Match result chances

Real Madrid win 76%Draw 15%RB Leipzig win 9%

All markets for this match

Double chance Main tipReal Madrid or draw (1X)91%1.101.06
Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.591%1.101.06

Leipzig's four away games produced 18 goals, and Real are missing defenders Militão, Asencio and Mendy.

Fair odds are what our chance is worth: 100 ÷ chance. When the bookmaker pays more, we mark it as value.

Form, last 5 matches

Real MadridWLWWWBeat Sevilla 4-1 at the weekend
RB LeipzigWLWWLLost 6-1 at Bayern Munich on Saturday

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right.

Head to head

Real Madrid 2 · Draw 1 · RB Leipzig 1
Champions League Mar 2024Real Madrid 1–1 RB Leipzig
Champions League Feb 2024RB Leipzig 0–1 Real Madrid
Champions League Oct 2022RB Leipzig 3–2 Real Madrid
Champions League Sep 2022Real Madrid 2–0 RB Leipzig

Team news

Real Madrid

Militão, Asencio, Mendy and Rodrygo are reported out.

RB Leipzig

Baumgartner, Ouédraogo and Guiu are reported out.

Form guide

Real Madrid are third in LaLiga with 21 points from nine games, six behind unbeaten Barcelona. They have won seven and lost two, 1-0 at Real Betis and 2-1 at Atlético Madrid. At home they have won all four games since the start of September: 2-1 against Inter, 4-1 against Rayo Vallecano, 1-0 against Villarreal and 4-1 against Sevilla at the weekend. In the Champions League they have six points, after also winning a 4-3 thriller at Roma last week.

RB Leipzig have been strong at home and poor away. They have 9 points from six Bundesliga games, with big home wins over Hamburg (5-0) and Eintracht Frankfurt (6-0). Away from home, though, they have lost all four games in the league and Europe: 3-1 at Werder Bremen, 4-1 at Como, 2-0 at Leverkusen and 6-1 at Bayern Munich on Saturday. They have three points in the Champions League after beating PSV 1-0 at home.

Head-to-head

Real have the better record in four Champions League meetings, with two wins, a draw and a defeat. Leipzig's only win came at home, 3-2 in 2022. In Madrid, Real won 2-0 in 2022 and drew 1-1 in 2024.

Team news

Real are missing three defenders in Militão, Asencio and Mendy, plus forward Rodrygo. Leipzig are without Baumgartner, Ouédraogo and Guiu.

Our prediction and why

We take Real Madrid or draw (1X). Real have won every home game since September, while Leipzig have lost all four away games and conceded 15 goals in them. Leipzig are dangerous at home but have not shown it on the road.

Other bets to consider

Over 1.5 goals is our second pick. Leipzig's four away games produced 18 goals, and Real's depleted defence has conceded in seven of their last eight games.

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: FAQs

When is Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig (Champions League) is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 (GMT+0100), at Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid.

What is the best pick for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

Our main tip is Real Madrid or draw (1X) at odds of 1.06, which we rate at a 91% chance. Real have won all four home games since the start of September, and Leipzig have lost all four away games in the Bundesliga and Champions League.

Who will win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

We give Real Madrid a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and RB Leipzig 9%. Real Madrid are clear favourites.

What other tips do you have for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

We also like: Over 1.5 goals (91%).

Have Leipzig ever won at the Bernabéu?

No. Real won 2-0 there in 2022 and the 2024 meeting ended 1-1.

How have Leipzig done away from home?

They have lost all four away games in the Bundesliga and Champions League, scoring 3 and conceding 15.

What is your best pick for Wednesday 21 October?

Our Banker of the Day is Sporting CP vs LASK: Sporting CP or draw (1X) at odds of 1.05.

Odds are a guide and may change before kick-off. Predictions are opinions, not guarantees. 18+ only.