LaLiga · Friday 23 October 2026 · 20:00

Alavés vs Málaga Prediction, Tips and Odds – 23 October 2026

AlavésHome
20:00Fri 23 Oct
MálagaAway
CompetitionLaLigaVenueMendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Our tipUnder 4.5
Odds1.10
Our chance88%
Why we picked it

Sixteen of the two teams' eighteen league games this season had four goals or fewer.

Odds of 1.10 give about a 91% chance. We rate it a little lower at 88%, so treat this one with care.

Match result chances

Alavés win 55%Draw 27%Málaga win 18%

All markets for this match

Over/Under 4.5 goals Main tipUnder 4.588%1.141.10
Double chanceAlavés or draw (1X)80%1.251.17

Málaga are winless in nine league games and have scored once in four away games.

Fair odds are what our chance is worth: 100 ÷ chance. When the bookmaker pays more, we mark it as value.

Form, last 5 matches

AlavésLLDLLLost 2-1 at Celta Vigo at the weekend
MálagaDLLDLLost 5-2 at home to Real Sociedad at the weekend

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right.

Head to head

Alavés 3 · Draw 0 · Málaga 1
LaLiga 2 Dec 2022Málaga 1–0 Alavés
LaLiga May 2018Málaga 0–3 Alavés
LaLiga Dec 2017Alavés 1–0 Málaga
LaLiga Mar 2017Málaga 1–2 Alavés

Team news

Alavés

Garcés is suspended and Rodríguez is out. Lucas Boyé is top scorer with 5.

Málaga

Ochoa, Lobete, Murillo, Cruz and Diarra are reported out, and Muñoz is a doubt.

Form guide

Alavés are seventh in LaLiga with 11 points from nine games, but they are in a poor run: no win in five, with defeats by Racing Santander, Valencia, Atlético Madrid and Celta Vigo. At home they have won three of five, including 3-0 against Getafe, 1-0 against Villarreal and 5-2 against Osasuna.

Málaga are bottom with four points and no win in nine games. They lost 5-2 at home to Real Sociedad at the weekend. Away from home they have one draw and three defeats, scoring just once (in a 1-1 draw at Celta).

Head-to-head

Alavés won all three top-flight meetings in 2017 and 2018, including 3-0 in Málaga. Málaga's only win came 1-0 in the second tier in 2022. None of the four meetings had more than three goals.

Team news

Alavés are without the suspended Garcés. Málaga have five players out, including Murillo and Diarra.

Our prediction and why

Our main tip is under 4.5 goals. Sixteen of the two teams' eighteen league games this season had four goals or fewer, and Málaga have scored once on their travels.

Other bets to consider

Alavés or draw (1X) is our second pick. Málaga are winless all season and struggle to score away. Alavés' five-game winless run is the reason we cover the draw.

Alavés vs Málaga: FAQs

When is Alavés vs Málaga?

Alavés vs Málaga (LaLiga) is on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 (GMT+0100), at Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.

What is the best pick for Alavés vs Málaga?

Our main tip is under 4.5 goals at odds of 1.10, which we rate at a 88% chance. Sixteen of the two teams' eighteen league games this season had four goals or fewer.

Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?

We give Alavés a 55% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Málaga 18%. Alavés are clear favourites.

What other tips do you have for Alavés vs Málaga?

We also like: Alavés or draw (1X) (80%).

Have Málaga won a league game this season?

No. They have four draws and five defeats from nine games.

How have Málaga done away from home?

They have one draw and three defeats on the road, scoring once.

What is your best pick for Friday 23 October?

Our Banker of the Day is Vitória Guimarães vs Marítimo: under 4.5 goals at odds of 1.10.

Odds are a guide and may change before kick-off. Predictions are opinions, not guarantees. 18+ only.

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