Why we expect goals
Groningen's games average more than four goals and Ajax's are not far behind. Ajax have not kept a clean sheet in weeks, and Groningen come in on two big wins. We expect both teams to score and three or more goals.
Eredivisie · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 15:45
Groningen vs Ajax Prediction, Tips and Odds – 18 October 2026
GroningenHome
15:45Sun 18 Oct
AjaxAwayOur tipOver 2.5
Odds1.42
Our chance72%
Why we picked it
Groningen games average more than four goals, and they have scored 20 in eight league games.
Odds of 1.42 give about a 70% chance, in line with our 72% estimate.
Match result chances
Groningen win 27%Draw 23%Ajax win 50%
All markets for this match
Over/Under 2.5 goals Main tipOver 2.572%1.391.42
Both teams to scoreBTTS – Yes68%1.471.44
Ajax have not kept a clean sheet in weeks, and Groningen come in on two big wins.
Fair odds are what our chance is worth: 100 ÷ chance. When the bookmaker pays more, we mark it as value.
Form, last 5 matches
GroningenLDDWWWon 5-1 at Excelsior last week
AjaxWWDDLLost 2-1 at Hajduk Split on Thursday
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right.
Head to head
Eredivisie May 2026Ajax won 2–0
Eredivisie Mar 2026Groningen won 3–1
Eredivisie Nov 2025Ajax won 2–0
Team news
Groningen
Willumsson leads their scoring with 4. They have 20 league goals in eight games.
Ajax
Dolberg is out. Ajax played on Thursday and have drawn two and lost one of their last three.
Groningen vs Ajax: FAQs
When is Groningen vs Ajax?
Groningen vs Ajax (Eredivisie) is on Sunday 18 October 2026, kick-off 15:45 (GMT+0100).
What is the best pick for Groningen vs Ajax?
Our main tip is over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.42, which we rate at a 72% chance. Groningen games average more than four goals, and they have scored 20 in eight league games.
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
We give Groningen a 27% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ajax 50%. Ajax are clear favourites.
What other tips do you have for Groningen vs Ajax?
We also like: Both teams to score (68%).
What is your best pick for Sunday 18 October?
Our Banker of the Day is Real Madrid vs Sevilla: Real Madrid to win at odds of 1.22.
Odds are a guide and may change before kick-off. Predictions are opinions, not guarantees. 18+ only.