Santos
FlamengoSantos vs Flamengo: our analysis
This is the in-form side against the league leaders. Santos come into the game on a five-match winning run in the league, while Flamengo sit top with 60 points from 28 games, three clear of Palmeiras.
Santos' surge has been driven by Gabriel Barbosa, who has six goals and three assists in his last five games. They have scored in each of their last seven matches, but they have also conceded in each of their last six league games at home, and 43 scored against 41 conceded shows a side that is stronger going forward than at the back.
Flamengo have the best defence in the league and the best away record, with eight wins from 14 trips. They are without Giorgian de Arrascaeta, their main creator, and Guillermo Varela, but Lucas Paquetá is back from suspension and Pedro has two goals in his last three games.
Our pick
The bookmakers make Flamengo clear favourites, but we give them about a 46% chance of winning, lower than the odds suggest, because of Santos' form in front of goal at home. Goals look the safer route: both teams score regularly, and over 1.5 goals comes in about three times in four on our numbers. Both teams have scored in six of the last seven meetings, which makes BTTS a reasonable second option, while a high-scoring game is less likely than it might seem, with under 3.5 goals landing about seven times in ten.
Verdict: over 1.5 goals, with 1-1 or a narrow Flamengo win the most likely scores.